Civic Signal Desk / Predictions

Public calls with visible evidence and a running scorecard

This board only shows promoted predictions. Each call has a public deadline, supporting evidence, and a falsification test so the desk can keep score in the open.

Board posture

Only promoted calls count toward the public ledger. Review and bench candidates stay out of view until they clear the current threshold.

Misses remain on the board when they resolve. The point is calibration, not theater.

Ground Rules
These are public, falsifiable calls based on current reporting, not recommendations to buy, sell, hire, fund, or accuse. Promoted predictions count toward public accuracy, and misses remain visible alongside the hits.
Active board
7
Promoted predictions currently live on the public desk.
Resolved calls
10
Closed predictions that can already count toward calibration.
Accuracy
80%
Share of resolved calls that landed as hits.
Next deadline
Dec 24, 2026
Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA) will publicly document the construction start of its approved $78.78 million, 111,000-square-foot two-level west terminal expansion — a notice to proceed, groundbreaking event, or board-reported construction commencement recorded in posted XNA Board of Directors minutes, an XNA release, or a named Northwest Arkansas media report — by December 24, 2026.
Active board

Active public predictions (7)

Open
Medium67%
Due in 114 days

Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA) will publicly document the construction start of its approved $78.78 million, 111,000-square-foot two-level west terminal expansion — a notice to proceed, groundbreaking event, or board-reported construction commencement recorded in posted XNA Board of Directors minutes, an XNA release, or a named Northwest Arkansas media report — by December 24, 2026.

Filed
Aug 26, 2026
Deadline
Dec 24, 2026
Supporting signals
Talk Business & PoliticsXNA approves $78 million project to add 111,000 square feet to terminalOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by Dec. 24, 2026, no XNA board record, XNA release, or named NWA media report documents a notice to proceed, groundbreaking, or start of construction on the west-side terminal expansion — including if the award is rescinded, rebid, or deferred pending financing.

Open
High70%
Due in 60 days

The Rogers City Council will adopt the ordinance authorizing an amendment to the City of Rogers franchise agreement with LRS South, LLC d.b.a. GFL Environmental, Inc. approving a solid waste disposal fee increase, with the new fee amount or per-customer rate stated in the posted ordinance or City Council minutes, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
Aug 22, 2026
Deadline
Oct 31, 2026
Supporting signals
Rogers Council Agenda SignalsCity Council agenda item (2026-08-25): ORD. Re: Authorizing An Amendment To The City Of Rogers Franchise Agreement With LRS South, LLC D.B.A. GFL Environmental, Inc. To Approve A Fee Increase For Solid Waste Disposal PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEEOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by October 31, 2026, no posted Rogers City Council ordinance or minutes record adoption of the GFL Environmental franchise amendment (e.g., the item is withdrawn, held in Public Works Committee, tabled indefinitely, or voted down), or if the adopted ordinance contains no stated fee figure or rate.

Open
High70%
Due in 90 days

The University of Arkansas will publish a 150 Forward Reaching Higher roadmap document or news release that states a specific numeric annual research expenditure goal (a named dollar figure, such as $500 million) following the August 24, 2026 kickoff at the Faulkner Performing Arts Center, verifiable on news.uark.edu or an official U of A 150 Forward web page by November 30, 2026.

Filed
Aug 18, 2026
Deadline
Nov 30, 2026
Supporting signals
University of Arkansas News150 Forward Reaching Higher Kickoff Event, August 24Open
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if no official University of Arkansas 150 Forward Reaching Higher publication or news release posted by November 30, 2026 contains a specific dollar-figure target for annual research expenditures.

Open
High70%
Due in 60 days

Citizens Bank will publicly confirm — via a press release, its own website, or local media coverage — that its newly announced Fayetteville branch has opened to customers and is operational, with a named address in Fayetteville, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
Jul 20, 2026
Deadline
Oct 31, 2026
Supporting signals
NWA Democrat-Gazette BusinessCitizens Bank plans Fayetteville branchOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No public confirmation of a Citizens Bank branch opening in Fayetteville — via the bank's website, a ribbon-cutting announcement, or local media report naming an operational branch — appears by October 31, 2026.

Open
High73%
Due in 44 days

Walmart will publicly announce the completion or operational launch of the Vibe.co acquisition integration — including a named business unit, product rebrand, or leadership appointment connecting Vibe.co to Walmart Connect — by October 15, 2026.

Filed
Jun 30, 2026
Deadline
Oct 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Talk Business & PoliticsWalmart to acquire connected TV platform Vibe.co for $1.4 billionOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No public announcement of integration milestones, organizational structure, product rebrand, or named leadership connecting Vibe.co to Walmart Connect by October 15, 2026.

Open
High85%
Due in 14 days

University of Arkansas School of Law will announce additional faculty hires or administrative appointments by September 15, 2026, following the appointment of Katheleen Guzman as interim dean amid ongoing institutional transitions.

Filed
Jun 1, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upDistinguished Alumna Returns to U of A to Serve as Interim School of Law Dean | Arkansas News | University of ArkansasOpenWeb Search Follow-upUniversity of Arkansas announces interim law school dean amid controversy - Arkansas TimesOpen
Open full case file
Additional evidence
Web Search Follow-upU of A announces alumna as new Interim School of Law Dean - NewsBreakOpen
What would make this wrong

No new faculty hires or administrative appointments are announced by the University of Arkansas School of Law by September 15, 2026

Open
High83%
Due in 14 days

Center for Business & Economic Research at University of Arkansas will announce expanded quarterly analysis programming or new regional economic partnerships by September 15, 2026, following the June 2026 Quarterly Business Analysis Luncheon examining economic uncertainty and consumer trends.

Filed
May 31, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upQuarterly Business Luncheon to Examine Economic Uncertainty, Consumer Optimism, Regional Trends | Arkansas News | University of ArkansasOpenWeb Search Follow-upUA researchers to host business analysis lunch - Talk Business & PoliticsOpen
Open full case file
Additional evidence
Web Search Follow-upQuarterly Business Analysis Luncheon June 18, 2025 Each June, the Center for Business & Economic Research hosts the Quarterly Business Analysis Luncheon, which builds networks of leaders from… | Jeff CoopersteinOpen
What would make this wrong

No announcements of expanded programming, new partnerships, or additional analysis initiatives by CBER by the deadline date

Desk method

Each public prediction carries a shared High / Medium / Low confidence label, visible evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. Bench candidates stay private until they are ready, and deadline misses still count.