Civic Signal Desk / Predictions

Public calls with visible evidence and a running scorecard

This board only shows promoted predictions. Each call has a public deadline, supporting evidence, and a falsification test so the desk can keep score in the open.

Board posture

Only promoted calls count toward the public ledger. Review and bench candidates stay out of view until they clear the current threshold.

Misses remain on the board when they resolve. The point is calibration, not theater.

Ground Rules
These are public, falsifiable calls based on current reporting, not recommendations to buy, sell, hire, fund, or accuse. Promoted predictions count toward public accuracy, and misses remain visible alongside the hits.
Active board
7
Promoted predictions currently live on the public desk.
Resolved calls
12
Closed predictions that can already count toward calibration.
Accuracy
83%
Share of resolved calls that landed as hits.
Next deadline
Dec 31, 2026
The Bentonville City Council will adopt a resolution accepting Arkansas Department of Transportation grant funds for the Eagle Way Tunnel & Trail project by December 31, 2026.
Active board

Active public predictions (7)

Open
High78%
Due in 76 days

The Bentonville City Council will adopt a resolution accepting Arkansas Department of Transportation grant funds for the Eagle Way Tunnel & Trail project by December 31, 2026.

Filed
Oct 9, 2026
Deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Supporting signals
Bentonville Council Agenda SignalsFinance Committee agenda item (2026-10-13): Resolution Accepting Grant Funds from ARDOT for Eagle Way Tunnel & TrailOpenBentonville Council Agenda SignalsFinance Committee agenda item (2026-10-13): Section IV Item 1 from the City Council Agenda: Resolution Accepting Walton Family Foundation Grant for "I" Street Water Supply Transmission MainOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

Wrong if, by December 31, 2026, posted City of Bentonville CivicClerk City Council agendas, minutes, or resolution records show no adopted resolution accepting ARDOT grant funds for the Eagle Way Tunnel & Trail, or show the item tabled, withdrawn, or voted down.

Open
High78%
Due in 60 days

The denial of Fayetteville conditional use permit case CUP-2026-0041 (south of 3365 N College Ave / H W Allen Co LLC, the relocation site for a Raising Cane's restaurant) will be appealed to the Fayetteville City Council, appearing as an appeal item on a posted City of Fayetteville CivicClerk City Council agenda by December 15, 2026.

Filed
Sep 15, 2026
Deadline
Dec 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Fayetteville Planning Agenda SignalsPlanning Commission agenda signal (2026-09-14): CUP-2026-0041: Conditional Use Permit (SOUTH OF 3365 N COLLEGE/H W ALLEN CO LLC, 213):OpenFayetteville Planning Agenda SignalsPlanning Commission agenda signal (2026-09-10): CUP-2026-0041: Conditional Use Permit (SOUTH OF 3365 N COLLEGE/H W ALLEN CO LLC, 213):Open
Open full case file
Additional evidence
Web Search Follow-upFayetteville planners reject permit for Raising Cane’s set to move on College Avenue - NewsBreakOpen
What would make this wrong

FALSE if no City of Fayetteville City Council agenda posted through Dec. 15, 2026 lists an appeal of CUP-2026-0041 (or the associated North College Avenue conditional use permit denial), including if the applicant instead refiles a new case, withdraws, or takes no action.

Open
High78%
Due in 60 days

Springdale-based Tyson Foods, in its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release, will report a full-year beef segment adjusted operating loss of at least $625 million, consistent with or worse than the guidance range of a $625 million to $775 million loss issued Sept. 3, 2026.

Filed
Sep 4, 2026
Deadline
Dec 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Talk Business & PoliticsTyson Foods lowers earnings guidance for beef segmentOpenNWA Democrat-Gazette BusinessTyson Foods cuts 2026 revenue guidance over beef pressuresOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

Prove wrong if Tyson Foods' fiscal 2026 full-year results report a beef segment adjusted operating loss smaller than $625 million (or a beef segment profit), or if no fiscal 2026 full-year results are released by Dec. 15, 2026.

Open
Medium67%
Due in 69 days

Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA) will publicly document the construction start of its approved $78.78 million, 111,000-square-foot two-level west terminal expansion — a notice to proceed, groundbreaking event, or board-reported construction commencement recorded in posted XNA Board of Directors minutes, an XNA release, or a named Northwest Arkansas media report — by December 24, 2026.

Filed
Aug 26, 2026
Deadline
Dec 24, 2026
Supporting signals
Talk Business & PoliticsXNA approves $78 million project to add 111,000 square feet to terminalOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by Dec. 24, 2026, no XNA board record, XNA release, or named NWA media report documents a notice to proceed, groundbreaking, or start of construction on the west-side terminal expansion — including if the award is rescinded, rebid, or deferred pending financing.

Open
High70%
Due in 15 days

The Rogers City Council will adopt the ordinance authorizing an amendment to the City of Rogers franchise agreement with LRS South, LLC d.b.a. GFL Environmental, Inc. approving a solid waste disposal fee increase, with the new fee amount or per-customer rate stated in the posted ordinance or City Council minutes, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
Aug 22, 2026
Deadline
Oct 31, 2026
Supporting signals
Rogers Council Agenda SignalsCity Council agenda item (2026-08-25): ORD. Re: Authorizing An Amendment To The City Of Rogers Franchise Agreement With LRS South, LLC D.B.A. GFL Environmental, Inc. To Approve A Fee Increase For Solid Waste Disposal PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEEOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by October 31, 2026, no posted Rogers City Council ordinance or minutes record adoption of the GFL Environmental franchise amendment (e.g., the item is withdrawn, held in Public Works Committee, tabled indefinitely, or voted down), or if the adopted ordinance contains no stated fee figure or rate.

Open
High70%
Due in 45 days

The University of Arkansas will publish a 150 Forward Reaching Higher roadmap document or news release that states a specific numeric annual research expenditure goal (a named dollar figure, such as $500 million) following the August 24, 2026 kickoff at the Faulkner Performing Arts Center, verifiable on news.uark.edu or an official U of A 150 Forward web page by November 30, 2026.

Filed
Aug 18, 2026
Deadline
Nov 30, 2026
Supporting signals
University of Arkansas News150 Forward Reaching Higher Kickoff Event, August 24Open
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

FALSE if no official University of Arkansas 150 Forward Reaching Higher publication or news release posted by November 30, 2026 contains a specific dollar-figure target for annual research expenditures.

Open
High70%
Due in 15 days

Citizens Bank will publicly confirm — via a press release, its own website, or local media coverage — that its newly announced Fayetteville branch has opened to customers and is operational, with a named address in Fayetteville, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
Jul 20, 2026
Deadline
Oct 31, 2026
Supporting signals
NWA Democrat-Gazette BusinessCitizens Bank plans Fayetteville branchOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No public confirmation of a Citizens Bank branch opening in Fayetteville — via the bank's website, a ribbon-cutting announcement, or local media report naming an operational branch — appears by October 31, 2026.

Desk method

Each public prediction carries a shared High / Medium / Low confidence label, visible evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. Bench candidates stay private until they are ready, and deadline misses still count.