Civic Signal Desk / Predictions

Public calls with visible evidence and a running scorecard

This board only shows promoted predictions. Each call has a public deadline, supporting evidence, and a falsification test so the desk can keep score in the open.

Board posture

Only promoted calls count toward the public ledger. Review and bench candidates stay out of view until they clear the current threshold.

Misses remain on the board when they resolve. The point is calibration, not theater.

Ground Rules
These are public, falsifiable calls based on current reporting, not recommendations to buy, sell, hire, fund, or accuse. Promoted predictions count toward public accuracy, and misses remain visible alongside the hits.
Active board
5
Promoted predictions currently live on the public desk.
Resolved calls
9
Closed predictions that can already count toward calibration.
Accuracy
0%
Share of resolved calls that landed as hits.
Next deadline
Oct 15, 2026
Walmart will publicly announce the completion or operational launch of the Vibe.co acquisition integration — including a named business unit, product rebrand, or leadership appointment connecting Vibe.co to Walmart Connect — by October 15, 2026.
Active board

Active public predictions (5)

Open
High73%
Due in 106 days

Walmart will publicly announce the completion or operational launch of the Vibe.co acquisition integration — including a named business unit, product rebrand, or leadership appointment connecting Vibe.co to Walmart Connect — by October 15, 2026.

Filed
Jun 30, 2026
Deadline
Oct 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Talk Business & PoliticsWalmart to acquire connected TV platform Vibe.co for $1.4 billionOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No public announcement of integration milestones, organizational structure, product rebrand, or named leadership connecting Vibe.co to Walmart Connect by October 15, 2026.

Open
High83%
Due in 61 days

University of Arkansas College of Engineering will announce new research partnerships or funding initiatives by August 31, 2026, following its climb to 99th overall in U.S. News graduate engineering rankings.

Filed
Jun 1, 2026
Deadline
Aug 31, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upEngineering College Crosses Into Top 100 in 2026 U.S. News Graduate Rankings | Arkansas News | University of ArkansasOpenWeb Search Follow-upUniversity of Arkansas Engineering climbs 7 spots in US News - AOLOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

University of Arkansas College of Engineering does not announce any new research partnerships or funding initiatives by August 31, 2026

Open
High85%
Due in 76 days

University of Arkansas School of Law will announce additional faculty hires or administrative appointments by September 15, 2026, following the appointment of Katheleen Guzman as interim dean amid ongoing institutional transitions.

Filed
Jun 1, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upDistinguished Alumna Returns to U of A to Serve as Interim School of Law Dean | Arkansas News | University of ArkansasOpenWeb Search Follow-upUniversity of Arkansas announces interim law school dean amid controversy - Arkansas TimesOpen
Open full case file
Additional evidence
Web Search Follow-upU of A announces alumna as new Interim School of Law Dean - NewsBreakOpen
What would make this wrong

No new faculty hires or administrative appointments are announced by the University of Arkansas School of Law by September 15, 2026

Open
High83%
Due in 76 days

Center for Business & Economic Research at University of Arkansas will announce expanded quarterly analysis programming or new regional economic partnerships by September 15, 2026, following the June 2026 Quarterly Business Analysis Luncheon examining economic uncertainty and consumer trends.

Filed
May 31, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upQuarterly Business Luncheon to Examine Economic Uncertainty, Consumer Optimism, Regional Trends | Arkansas News | University of ArkansasOpenWeb Search Follow-upUA researchers to host business analysis lunch - Talk Business & PoliticsOpen
Open full case file
Additional evidence
Web Search Follow-upQuarterly Business Analysis Luncheon June 18, 2025 Each June, the Center for Business & Economic Research hosts the Quarterly Business Analysis Luncheon, which builds networks of leaders from… | Jeff CoopersteinOpen
What would make this wrong

No announcements of expanded programming, new partnerships, or additional analysis initiatives by CBER by the deadline date

Open
High82%
Due in 30 days

Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce will announce a new executive director or key leadership hire by July 31, 2026, following the staff layoffs and planned complete reboot

Filed
May 3, 2026
Deadline
Jul 31, 2026
Supporting signals
Web Search Follow-upLocal Chamber of Commerce lays off staff to do complete reboot | 5newsonline.comOpen
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No announcement of executive director or major leadership hire by the Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce by July 31, 2026

Desk method

Each public prediction carries a shared High / Medium / Low confidence label, visible evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. Bench candidates stay private until they are ready, and deadline misses still count.